The Best Time to Invest Was Yesterday: Timing the Market

By Chris Palabe, CFS®, AIF®

When it comes to investing, many people wonder about the perfect time to get started. They think about trying to predict the market and choosing the right moment to jump in. But here’s the thing: waiting for the “perfect” moment can lead to missed opportunities for growth. And while it can be tempting to try your hand at timing the market, the truth is it isn’t a strategy that will grow your wealth. 

By starting your investment journey as early as possible and staying invested for the long term, you position yourself to benefit from the power of compounding and the potential for growth. Let’s explore 3 reasons why timing the market is a challenging strategy and offer alternative approaches to reach investment success.

Market Timing Is Consistently Inconsistent

Timing the market usually involves attempting to “buy low and sell high” by analyzing current market trends for inefficiencies or volatility indicators. This strategy may work sometimes, but it is far from perfect. Not only do you have to guess when to buy in, but you then have to guess when to sell. That means for every gain, you have to be right twice to make timing the market worth it. Unfortunately, market bottoms can only be truly spotted in hindsight, and timing the market is often closer to playing the lottery than it is to an educated guess.

Timing the Market Is Expensive

Timing the market can also be expensive. Depending on your account type, asset class, and where you are executing your trades, you will likely be charged for every purchase and sale you make, and that’s on top of any taxes owed on gains. The more frequently you trade, the higher your transaction costs will be.

If you held the assets for less than a year, your gain will be taxed as ordinary income at your marginal tax rate, which can be as high as 37% for high-income earners. Long-term gains are taxed at a preferential rate. Regardless of your tax rate, your market timing must still be right more often than not just to cover the cost of your guess. 

You Will Miss Out on Compound Growth & Market Rebounds

A recent study by Schwab Center for Financial Research (1) found that bad market timing is worse than investing immediately, regardless of the market conditions at the time of investing. This indicates that even in market downturns, or just before a downturn, investors who invest immediately and remain invested will be better off than those who stay on the sidelines or attempt to time the market. 

Take a look at Schwab’s graph below, which shows just how much more a fully invested portfolio earns over the course of 19 years. It would earn approximately $14,000 more in growth than a portfolio with bad market timing, and $91,000 more than a portfolio that stays in cash. The only investor who performs better is the one with perfect timing—but since we already know that perfect timing is impossible, investing immediately is the next best strategy.

What’s more, over time that extra $14,000 or $91,000 will have the opportunity to grow even more thanks to compounded interest. Even if the market fluctuates in the short term, the odds are high that a solid investment strategy will grow over time.

Another graph by Hartford Funds (2) and Morningstar shows what happens if you miss the best days in the market, which often closely follow a major downturn and can be just as difficult to predict. An investor who missed the 10 best days in the market between 1992 and 2021 would have earned 54% less than someone who was fully invested during the same time period. 

Someone who missed the 30 best market days would have earned a whopping $172,000 (83%) less than their fully invested counterpart. The research is based on a $10,000 initial investment, but these numbers would be much more dramatic if you were dealing with a $100,000 or even a $1,000,000 portfolio. 

The time value of money tells us that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, and this is certainly the case when it comes to investing. The longer you are invested, the more likely you are to ride out the day-to-day market fluctuations and experience growth instead.

Capitalize on Opportunities for Growth

Don’t miss out on potential growth by trying to time the market prematurely. At Palabe Wealth, we are dedicated to assisting our clients in building their portfolios so they can feel confident about their long-term financial choices. If you want to navigate market volatility and gain clarity on market timing concerns, we are here to help. Schedule a 15-minute introductory phone call or call us at 847-249-6600 to learn if we are the right fit for your financial goals.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

This material was prepared for Palabe Wealth Inc.’s use.

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(1) https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work

(2) https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html